Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2003 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow

AA 2003 · DFW → SEA

departs 7:35 PM CT · arrives 9:34 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 27h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±4 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ This flight has been late 42% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.18 in

SEA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2003 · DFW → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?