Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2078 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

AA 2078 · DFW → SMF

departs 11:53 AM CT · arrives 1:40 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 9:00 PM ET · 40h before departure

Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±6 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SMF?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 11am departures from DFW are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 21% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling3,467 ft Visibility8.33333 mi Precipnone

SMF (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2078 · DFW → SMF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SMF?