Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2078 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31

AA 2078 · DFW → SMF

departs 12:00 PM CT · arrives 1:34 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 65h before departure

Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±7 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SMF?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 12pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ DFW is prone to delays

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at DFW that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.10 in

SMF (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceiling4,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2078 · DFW → SMF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SMF?