Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2442 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

AA 2442 · CLT → BUF

departs 1:28 PM ET · arrives 3:20 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 42h before departure

Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±1 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BUF?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↑ 1pm departures from CLT are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

↓ BUF usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BUF (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.05 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2442 · CLT → BUF

Odds over time

How late will it get to BUF?