AA 2643 · MIA → SJO

took off 7:36 PM ET · expected to land 8:05 PM CST (scheduled 7:27 PM ET → 8:22 PM CST)

Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at SJO more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SJO?

LIVE

On time or early
99%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Arrivals into SJO at that hour are usually not late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SJO

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SJO (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2643 · MIA → SJO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SJO?