AA 2826 · CLT → ILM

departs 8:58 PM ET · arrives 10:08 PM ET

Your aircraft is N153AN (A321), coming in as AA 1913 from SAN: landed 7:35 PM ET.

Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at ILM more than 15 minutes late?

21% chance · ±0 pts −27 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to ILM?

On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 8pm departures from CLT are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ILM

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility6 mi Precipnone

ILM (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceiling2,400 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2826 · CLT → ILM

Odds over time

How late will it get to ILM?