Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2889 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

AA 2889 · SAT → CLT

departs 11:55 AM CT · arrives 3:46 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 PM ET · 43h before departure

Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±3 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CLT?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2.66667 mi forecast at SAT that day

↑ Arrivals into CLT at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

↓ CLT usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

SAT (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility2.66667 mi Precip0.11 in

CLT (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2889 · SAT → CLT

Odds over time

How late will it get to CLT?