Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2921 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30 Tomorrow

AA 2921 · ORD → BUF

departs 2:27 PM CT · arrives 5:23 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 12:00 AM ET · 40h before departure

Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±2 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BUF?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 30% of the time recently

↑ 2pm departures from ORD are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

BUF (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2921 · ORD → BUF

Odds over time

How late will it get to BUF?