Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2921 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31

AA 2921 · ORD → BUF

departs 2:22 PM CT · arrives 5:03 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 64h before departure

Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±8 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BUF?

On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 30% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BUF

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.16 in

BUF (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2921 · ORD → BUF

Odds over time

How late will it get to BUF?