AA 2952 · MCO → PHL

took off 6:50 PM ET · expected to land 8:59 PM ET (scheduled 6:39 PM ET → 9:24 PM ET)

Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PHL?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from MCO are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at MCO that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts26 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

PHL (destination) Gusts33 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2952 · MCO → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?