Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2956 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

AA 2956 · DFW → ONT

departs 10:32 AM CT · arrives 11:45 AM PT

Forecast issued Wed 3:00 PM ET · 44h before departure

Arrive at ONT more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±4 pts −8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ONT?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↑ 10am departures from DFW are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling3,533 ft Visibility7.66667 mi Precipnone

ONT (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling3,933 ft Visibility4 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2956 · DFW → ONT

Odds over time

How late will it get to ONT?