AA 385 · MIA → LIM

departs 4:46 PM ET · arrives 9:44 PM -05

Forecast issued Fri 12:00 PM ET · 5h before departure

Arrive at LIM more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±0 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to LIM?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Arrivals into LIM at that hour are usually not late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LIM

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

LIM (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 385 · MIA → LIM

Odds over time

How late will it get to LIM?