Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 413 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

AA 413 · DFW → SAT

departs 10:30 AM CT · arrives 11:45 AM CT

Forecast issued Wed 3:00 PM ET · 44h before departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±3 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 28% of the time recently

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2.66667 mi forecast at SAT that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ Arrivals into SAT at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling3,533 ft Visibility7.66667 mi Precipnone

SAT (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility2.66667 mi Precip0.11 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 413 · DFW → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?