Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 413 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31

AA 413 · DFW → SAT

departs 10:37 AM CT · arrives 11:53 AM CT

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 70h before departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±0 pts +12 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 28% of the time recently

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at DFW that day

↓ Arrivals into SAT at that hour are usually not late

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.06 in

SAT (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility2 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 413 · DFW → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?