AA 647 · MIA → SDF

left the gate 8:57 PM ET · taxiing (scheduled 9:05 PM ET → 11:42 PM ET)

Your aircraft is N721UW (A319), coming in as AA 2250 from NAS: landed 7:01 PM ET.

Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?

10% chance · ±0 pts −29 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to SDF?

On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 41% of the time recently

↑ 9pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SDF

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SDF (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 647 · MIA → SDF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SDF?