AA 876 · DFW → MSN

took off 8:36 PM CT · expected to land 10:18 PM CT (scheduled 8:36 PM CT → 10:53 PM CT)

Forecast issued Fri 9:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at MSN more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MSN?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 46% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MSN

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.07 in

MSN (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling6,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 876 · DFW → MSN

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSN?