Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 876 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow

AA 876 · DFW → MSN

departs 8:36 PM CT · arrives 10:53 PM CT

Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 28h before departure

Arrive at MSN more than 15 minutes late?

58% chance · ±2 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MSN?

On time or early
41%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
24%
1–2 hours late
15%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ This flight has been late 46% of the time recently

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MSN

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.18 in

MSN (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.05 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 876 · DFW → MSN

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSN?