Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 982 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

AA 982 · ORD → PIT

departs 12:43 PM CT · arrives 3:26 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 42h before departure

Arrive at PIT more than 15 minutes late?

21% chance · ±2 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PIT?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 43% of the time recently

↑ 12pm departures from ORD are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PIT

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PIT (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 982 · ORD → PIT

Odds over time

How late will it get to PIT?