Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 982 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 31

AA 982 · ORD → PIT

departs 12:33 PM CT · arrives 3:08 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 66h before departure

Arrive at PIT more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PIT?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 12pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 0.3 in of rain forecast at ORD that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PIT

↓ Arrivals into PIT at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.28 in

PIT (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 982 · ORD → PIT

Odds over time

How late will it get to PIT?