AA 991 · MIA → GIG

took off 8:56 PM ET · expected to land 5:32 AM -03 (scheduled 8:41 PM ET → 5:55 AM -03)

Forecast issued Fri 9:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at GIG more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to GIG?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Arrivals into GIG at that hour are usually not late

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.05 in

GIG (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 991 · MIA → GIG

Odds over time

How late will it get to GIG?