Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AIR CANADA · FLIGHT AC 1509 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

AC 1509 · EWR → YYZ

departs 4:29 PM ET · arrives 6:28 PM EDT

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 66h before departure

Arrive at YYZ more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to YYZ?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 4pm departures from EWR are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

YYZ (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling4,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AC 1509 · EWR → YYZ

Odds over time

How late will it get to YYZ?