Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 469 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

AS 469 · SBA → SEA

departs 6:50 PM PT · arrives 9:26 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 60h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SBA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

Weather at each end

SBA (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling3,400 ft Visibility9.33333 mi Precip0.05 in

SEA (destination) Gusts4 kt Ceiling2,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 469 · SBA → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?