Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
JETBLUE · FLIGHT B6 539
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
B6 539 · JFK → BQN
departs 6:38 PM ET · arrives 10:42 PM AT
Forecast issued Wed 6:00 AM ET · 61h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 17%
Thu 10/29 39%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 45%
Sun 11/1 57%
Mon 11/2 39%
Tue 11/3 33%
Odds over time
Arrive at BQN more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±7 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
49%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BQN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed – in 24h
–
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed – in 24h
–
49%
Yes 49%
No 51%
Arrive at BQN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BQN?
On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
B6's recent on-time record
↑
6pm departures from JFK are often late
↑
This flight has been late 31% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
JFK (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BQN (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.