Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1243
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30 Today
DL 1243 · TPA → DTW
departs 6:05 PM ET · arrives 8:53 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 8:00 AM ET · 10h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/31 15%
Sun 11/1 33%
Mon 11/2 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±0 pts
−8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at DTW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to DTW?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
6pm departures from TPA are often late
↑
Arrivals into DTW at that hour are often late
↓
Other factors
↓
Cloud base down to 1,000 ft forecast at TPA that day
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 1,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DTW (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.