Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1243
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31 Tomorrow
DL 1243 · TPA → DTW
departs 6:05 PM ET · arrives 8:53 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 AM ET · 32h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 17%
Sat 10/31
Sun 11/1 30%
Mon 11/2 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±1 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at DTW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DTW?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
6pm departures from TPA are often late
↑
Arrivals into DTW at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at TPA
↓
DL's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
DTW (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.