Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1412
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30 Tomorrow
DL 1412 · SFO → SEA
departs 2:17 PM PT · arrives 4:23 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 36h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 38%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 22%
Sun 11/1 40%
Mon 11/2 38%
Tue 11/3 34%
Wed 11/4 41%
Odds over time
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
36%
chance · ±5 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
36%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at SEA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SEA?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
2pm departures from SFO are often late
↑
SFO is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
↓
DL's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SEA (destination)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.