Schedule: the flights that flew on Saturday, Oct 24, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1412
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 31
DL 1412 · SFO → SEA
departs 2:15 PM PT · arrives 4:29 PM PT
Forecast issued Thu 5:00 AM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 38%
Fri 10/30 36%
Sat 10/31
Sun 11/1 40%
Mon 11/2 38%
Tue 11/3 34%
Wed 11/4 41%
Odds over time
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at SEA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SEA?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
2pm departures from SFO are often late
↑
SFO is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
DL's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 4,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SEA (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling 10,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.