Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1442 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

DL 1442 · MSP → LAS

departs 10:13 PM CT · arrives 11:42 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±3 pts +11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MSP

↓ MSP usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MSP (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling3,343 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAS (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling4,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 1442 · MSP → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?