Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1471
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30 Today
DL 1471 · BNA → LAX
departs 7:12 PM CT · arrives 9:31 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 2h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 11/1 35%
Mon 11/2 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±0 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at LAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to LAX?
On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late
↑
7pm departures from BNA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA
↓
DL's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
LAX (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 2,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.