Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1471
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
DL 1471 · BNA → LAX
departs 7:13 PM CT · arrives 9:44 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 51h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 31%
Sun 11/1
Mon 11/2 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±13 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
34%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed – in 24h
–
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Arrive at LAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAX?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
7pm departures from BNA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.7 in of rain forecast at BNA that day
↓
BNA usually runs smoothly
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.73 in
LAX (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 2,400 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.29 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.