DL 1541 · DTW → STL

took off 8:23 PM ET · expected to land 8:34 PM CT (scheduled 8:00 PM ET → 8:37 PM CT)

Forecast issued Fri 9:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±0 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to STL?

LIVE

On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from DTW are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into STL at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW

↓ DTW usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DTW (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

STL (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 1541 · DTW → STL

Odds over time

How late will it get to STL?