Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1541
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
DL 1541 · DTW → STL
departs 8:00 PM ET · arrives 8:37 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 9:00 PM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 24%
Sat 10/31 10%
Sun 11/1
Mon 11/2 18%
Tue 11/3 18%
Wed 11/4 20%
Thu 11/5 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±3 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at STL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to STL?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8pm departures from DTW are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Cloud base down to 333 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at STL that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW
↓
STL usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DTW (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
STL (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 333 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.