DL 236 · TPA → AMS

departs 6:03 PM ET · arrives 7:51 AM CET

Forecast issued Fri 1:00 PM ET · 5h before departure

Arrive at AMS more than 15 minutes late?

21% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to AMS?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from TPA are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at AMS

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling1,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

AMS (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 236 · TPA → AMS

Odds over time

How late will it get to AMS?