Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 236 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, November 1

DL 236 · TPA → AMS

departs 6:25 PM ET · arrives 9:05 AM CET

Forecast issued Fri 1:00 PM ET · 54h before departure

Arrive at AMS more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to AMS?

On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.8 in of rain forecast at TPA that day

↑ 6pm departures from TPA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at AMS

↓ Sundays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling1,767 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.84 in

AMS (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 236 · TPA → AMS

Odds over time

How late will it get to AMS?