Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2529
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30 Today
DL 2529 · MCO → AUS
departs 6:16 PM ET · arrives 8:02 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 2:00 PM ET · 4h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 11/1 48%
Mon 11/2 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
42%
chance · ±0 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
42%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 800 ft forecast at AUS that day
↑
6pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late
↓
Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at MCO that day
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 500 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
AUS (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.20 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.