Schedule: the flights that flew on Sunday, Oct 25, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2529
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, November 1
DL 2529 · MCO → AUS
departs 6:16 PM ET · arrives 8:02 PM CT
Forecast issued Fri 2:00 PM ET · 53h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 42%
Sun 11/1
Mon 11/2 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
48%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
48%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
28%
Cancelled
23%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed – in 24h
–
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed – in 24h
–
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
40%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
23%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 29 kt, 1.5 in of rain forecast at MCO that day
↑
6pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at AUS
↓
Sundays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 29 kt Ceiling 2,867 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 1.54 in
AUS (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.