Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 2505
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
F9 2505 · PHL → MCO
departs 5:45 PM ET · arrives 8:23 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 4:00 AM ET · 62h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 30%
Thu 10/29 41%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 30%
Sun 11/1 42%
Mon 11/2 36%
Tue 11/3 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
42%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
42%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
15%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed – in 24h
–
42%
Yes 42%
No 58%
Leave PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed – in 24h
–
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
5pm departures from PHL are often late
↑
This flight has been late 35% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL
↓
Gusts to 27 kt forecast at MCO that day
Weather at each end
PHL (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 4,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.