Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4406
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
F9 4406 · ATL → MIA
departs 11:28 PM ET · arrives 1:43 AM ET
Forecast issued Wed 6:00 AM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 25%
Thu 10/29 35%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 35%
Sun 11/1 38%
Mon 11/2 41%
Tue 11/3 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
40%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
7.0d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 40% · changed – in 24h
–
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Arrive at MIA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MIA?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 25% of the time recently
↑
11pm departures from ATL are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ATL
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MIA (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.