Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4990
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
F9 4990 · SAN → DEN
departs 4:49 PM PT · arrives 8:15 PM MT
Forecast issued Wed 4:00 AM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Thu 10/29 37%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 20%
Sun 11/1 30%
Mon 11/2 35%
Tue 11/3 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed – in 24h
–
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed – in 24h
–
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
4pm departures from SAN are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 3,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DEN (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.