LH 461 · MIA → MUC

departs 7:41 PM ET · arrives 9:55 AM CET

Forecast issued Fri 4:00 AM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at MUC more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MUC?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MUC

↓ Fridays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling2,400 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MUC (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

LH 461 · MIA → MUC

Odds over time

How late will it get to MUC?