Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3710
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
MQ 3710 · RDU → MIA
departs 4:43 PM ET · arrives 6:49 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 8:00 AM ET · 57h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29 30%
Fri 10/30
Sun 11/1 34%
Mon 11/2 36%
Odds over time
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed – in 24h
–
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at MIA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MIA?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
4pm departures from RDU are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU
Weather at each end
RDU (origin)
Gusts 4 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MIA (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.