Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3932
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
MQ 3932 · MEM → DFW
departs 7:35 PM CT · arrives 9:11 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 12:00 PM ET · 57h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Thu 10/29 37%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 20%
Sun 11/1 24%
Mon 11/2 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±11 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
20%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed – in 24h
–
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave MEM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 21% of the time recently
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MEM
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW
Weather at each end
MEM (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DFW (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 4,667 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.