Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4017
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
MQ 4017 · CLT → SGF
departs 8:15 PM ET · arrives 9:34 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 12:00 PM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Thu 10/29 20%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 35%
Sun 11/1 38%
Mon 11/2 28%
Tue 11/3 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at SGF more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SGF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed – in 24h
–
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave CLT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at SGF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SGF?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8pm departures from CLT are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
CLT is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SGF
Weather at each end
CLT (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SGF (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.