Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4115
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
MQ 4115 · MIA → CVG
departs 7:45 PM ET · arrives 10:35 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 11:00 AM ET · 57h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 14%
Thu 10/29 15%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 25%
Sun 11/1 24%
Mon 11/2 20%
Tue 11/3 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at CVG more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to CVG?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
7pm departures from MIA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into CVG at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CVG
Weather at each end
MIA (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
CVG (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 5 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.