Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4138
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
MQ 4138 · ILM → DCA
departs 7:37 PM ET · arrives 9:07 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 11:00 AM ET · 57h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 11%
Thu 10/29 27%
Fri 10/30
Sun 11/1 36%
Mon 11/2 27%
Tue 11/3 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed – in 24h
–
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave ILM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
DCA is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ILM
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
Weather at each end
ILM (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 6 mi Precip none
DCA (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.