Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 4146
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
MQ 4146 · LIT → CLT
departs 1:24 PM CT · arrives 4:33 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 7:00 AM ET · 55h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 6%
Thu 10/29 8%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 18%
Sun 11/1 14%
Mon 11/2 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave LIT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at CLT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to CLT?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into CLT at that hour are often late
↑
Early flights usually leave on time
↑
CLT is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LIT
Weather at each end
LIT (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 10,333 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
CLT (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.