Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
BREEZE · FLIGHT MX 2071
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
MX 2071 · MCO → RDU
departs 4:17 PM ET · arrives 6:11 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 65h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 27%
Thu 10/29 35%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 28%
Sun 11/1 34%
Mon 11/2 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at RDU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RDU?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
4pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 4,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
RDU (destination)
Gusts 4 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.