Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5140 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

OH 5140 · GSO → DCA

departs 7:39 PM ET · arrives 8:59 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 1:00 PM ET · 55h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±7 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
69%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 30% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at GSO

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

Weather at each end

GSO (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5140 · GSO → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?