Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5233 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

OH 5233 · CLT → XNA

departs 4:34 PM ET · arrives 6:09 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 55h before departure

Arrive at XNA more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to XNA?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from CLT are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into XNA at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at XNA

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

XNA (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5233 · CLT → XNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to XNA?