Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

PSA · FLIGHT OH 5401 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

OH 5401 · HPN → DCA

departs 5:26 PM ET · arrives 6:58 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 PM ET · 53h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 42% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at HPN

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

Weather at each end

HPN (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OH 5401 · HPN → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?